Thu 26 Jun 2008
The Company That Will Kill Microsoft Is… Microsoft
Posted by andrew under Computing , Vista , Mac OS XNo Comments
This week is notable in the lives of lovers of Microsoft Windows everywhere for two key events: the retirement of Bill Gates, who will now work full-time for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and the retirement of Microsoft Windows XP, the operating system for lovers of the Teletubbies everywhere.
Microsoft is a company whose success is very much based on fate and being in the right place at the right time. This has happened on two key occasions. First, they were lucky enough to secure a deal to provide the operating system for IBM’s upcoming personal computer, which would end up dominating the market place. This happened largely because IBM’s meeting with Digital Research failed. IBM turned to Microsoft instead, then known for Altair BASIC and a notable letter which ushered in the proprietary software industry. Microsoft bought out a company that did a cheap CP/M clone, this became MS-DOS and the rest is history and a legacy of drive letters.
The second occasion was the launch on Windows 3.1. Windows 1 and 2 were relatively unsuccessful, but Windows 3.1 turned out to be ‘good enough’ and at the right time. Based on its success, Microsoft broke off their collaboration with IBM on OS/2 and concentrated solely on Windows, turning their work on OS/2 into Windows NT which eventually replaced the MS-DOS line of Windows implementations which contains Windows 95, Windows 98 and Windows ME.
Both of these developments were successful for one key reason: cost. There were other computing platforms around at the time of MS-DOS; it was by no means the first and certainly not the best. There were other graphical interfaces around at the time of Windows 3.1 (including Apple’s Mac OS, which lead to a lawsuit between the two). Microsoft succeeded because these systems were relatively cheap compared with the competition at the time. Back then, there was no Free UNIX implementations in a usable state. There was no world-wide web, so marketing dominated user’s ideas of what was out there. This is even more important when you consider that back then computer users were generally more adept than they are now that the general public have a computer in their home. Microsoft was successful in the workplace; this was the first experience of using a computer for many and the use of Windows became an inbuilt part of our society to the extent that our children are now reared on it from an early age.
Ironically, it is cost that will be Microsoft’s downfall. Why? Because the cost of Microsoft software has not fallen, but risen over time. Comparatively, computer hardware is now cheap to the extent that a personal computer in 2008 can cost so little that the additional cost of Windows licensing takes up a significant percentage. Don’t think you’re paying the Microsoft tax? It’s factored in there at some point, even if it’s not made clear. Even the OLPC for the fair world will have a levy of $10 for a Windows license.
The other reason for Microsoft’s dominance is apathy. The majority of computer users don’t care what they use, as long as it lets them write a letter to Auntie June thanking them for their christmas presents, download the Top 40 via iTunes or browse numerous hilarious videos on YouTube. This is also why the Mac has become successful; they don’t have any ethical advantage over Microsoft (Mac OS X is equally non-Free and worse than Microsoft if just simply because people tend to trust Apple more) and sell their machines purely on the basis that it will be a bit more stable than Windows, look a little nicer and because the hardware is just shiny.
This is why releasing Windows Vista was the worse thing Microsoft could have done, and why it has effectively hammered the nail in their own coffin. In XP, they had a platform that had stood the test of time to an extent. It was by no means good, being more like a battered old armchair; comfortable and homely to many users. But by the end of this week, it’ll be dead. Microsoft are currently intending to support it on the new breed of eeePC-style computers, if just so they don’t let GNU/Linux systems get a look in; Microsoft arrogance couldn’t allow that. And of course, people going out and buying Vista AND XP is double the profits for Microsoft. However, try as they might to call buying a $50 XP install from Dell a downgrade, the computer industry in general knows this isn’t the case and Microsoft firmly have egg on their faces over Visaster.
Thus, they have to been seen to push forward with Vista, but doing so will only further irritate their users. Microsoft has made many enemies over time, but now even its friends are turning against it. XP was relatively stable and fast, being designed for machines circa 2001. Vista, by comparison, is a behemoth, a stellar example of badly written code that needs vast computer resources to run what is in effect just an operating system. The apathetic users we mentioned earlier don’t use Windows; Windows for them is actually Microsoft Word or the like. If running just the operating system itself requires ridiculous hardware, then adding applications on top just makes things worse, not to mention all the crazy physics-defying DRM ideas Microsoft has stowed away in there. There are already lawsuits because ‘Vista-capable’ machines just…well..aren’t.
But Microsoft had to release Vista. Why? Because their flawed model of proprietary software requires this. To be seen as being active, Microsoft have to appear to be working on a new version of Windows to satisfy its critics and, more importantly, its shareholders. There has to be something new in the pipeline to make more money. The problem is making money on a new release means getting people to want to buy it and that means having something people want. The problem is there is nothing in Vista for most people, and most people are satisfied with what they already have. There may have been lots of copies of Vista going out, but the majority by far will be because it’s on the new machine Mr and Mrs Jones just bought. And that counts even if Mr and Mrs Jones then download a copy of Ubuntu, wipe off Vista and install Ubuntu instead because little Johnny recommended it to them.
With Vista then, it seems the sadists have finally had about enough. Unfortunately, rebelling against this seems to mean choosing another version of Windows at present; hopefully many can instead be convinced that a GNU/Linux installation would be a better choice, especially as XP becomes unsupported and its a choice between that or Vista. Microsoft do seem to have made some laudable efforts to improve things in Vista, but as always with them these improvements tend to be rushed and/or flawed, and additionally, the majority of the audience that would appreciate these changes have long since left for pastures new. The remaining Windows users are those who just want things to stay the same; if they wanted change, they’d have installed a GNU/Linux operating system a long time ago or maybe just gone out and bought a Mac.
It will be interesting to see how long Microsoft continue to survive. Things have gone south ever since the monkey took the helm. As a GNU/Linux user, it’ll be interesting to watch from the sidelines. Hopefully this drama will keep Microsoft from irritating the Free Software community with even more with spurious patent claims…